DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067102
论文题名: Does El Niño intensity matter for California precipitation?
作者: Hoell A. ; Hoerling M. ; Eischeid J. ; Wolter K. ; Dole R. ; Perlwitz J. ; Xu T. ; Cheng L.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9452
EISSN: 1944-9183
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 2 起始页码: 819
结束页码: 825
语种: 英语
英文关键词: California
; drought
; El Niño
; precipitation
Scopus关键词: Drought
; Nickel
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Probability
; Water resources
; California
; Climate simulation
; Multi-model ensemble
; Situational awareness
; Southern California
; Water planning
; Wet conditions
; Probability distributions
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; drought stress
; El Nino
; precipitation assessment
; probability
; spatial distribution
; water management
; water planning
; California
; United States
英文摘要: The sensitivity of California precipitation to El Niño intensity is investigated by applying a multimodel ensemble of historical climate simulations to estimate how November-April precipitation probability distributions vary across three categorizations of El Niño intensity. Weak and moderate El Niño events fail to appreciably alter wet or dry risks across northern and central California, though odds for wet conditions increase across southern California during moderate El Niño. Significant increases in wet probabilities occur during strong El Niño events across the entire state. In California's main northern watershed regions, simulations indicate an 85% chance of greater than normal precipitation and a 50% probability of at least 125% of normal. Our results indicate that both the statewide average and the spatial distribution of California precipitation are sensitive to El Niño intensity. Forecasts of El Niño intensity would thus contribute to improved situational awareness for California water planning and related water resource impacts. © 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84961285909&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL067102&partnerID=40&md5=a91aad721b1b9a9a76f911d55437b5f7
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10415
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Physical Sciences Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Hoell A.,Hoerling M.,Eischeid J.,et al. Does El Niño intensity matter for California precipitation?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(2).