| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL067009
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| 论文题名: | Improved seasonal drought forecasts using reference evapotranspiration anomalies |
| 作者: | McEvoy D.J.; Huntington J.L.; Mejia J.F.; Hobbins M.T.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9507
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| EISSN: | 1944-9238
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 43, 期:1 | | 起始页码: | 377
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| 结束页码: | 385
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | complementary relationship
; drought
; evaporative demand
; reference evapotranspiration
; seasonal forecasting
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric pressure
; Drought
; Forecasting
; Weather forecasting
; Actual evapotranspiration
; Climate forecasts
; Complementary relationship
; Evaporative demands
; Recent researches
; Reference evapotranspiration
; Seasonal forecasting
; Southern oscillation
; Evapotranspiration
; accuracy assessment
; climate prediction
; complementarity
; drought
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; evapotranspiration
; forecasting method
; precipitation (climatology)
; seasonal variation
; spatiotemporal analysis
; weather forecasting
; United States
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| 英文摘要: | A novel contiguous United States (CONUS) wide evaluation of reference evapotranspiration (ET0; a formulation of evaporative demand) anomalies is performed using the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) reforecast data for 1982-2009. This evaluation was motivated by recent research showing ET0 anomalies can accurately represent drought through exploitation of the complementary relationship between actual evapotranspiration and ET0. Moderate forecast skill of ET0 was found up to leads of 5 months and was consistently better than precipitation skill over most of CONUS. Forecasts of ET0 during drought events revealed high categorical skill for notable warm-season droughts of 1988 and 1999 in the central and northeast CONUS, with precipitation skill being much lower or absent. Increased ET0 skill was found in several climate regions when CFSv2 forecasts were initialized during moderate-to-strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation events. Our findings suggest that ET0 anomaly forecasts can improve and complement existing seasonal drought forecasts. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84957727753&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL067009&partnerID=40&md5=049138125586fb0da799758b9490aa72
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10470
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
McEvoy D.J.,Huntington J.L.,Mejia J.F.,et al. Improved seasonal drought forecasts using reference evapotranspiration anomalies[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(1).
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