DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067143
论文题名: Future circulation changes off West Antarctica: Sensitivity of the Amundsen Sea Low to projected anthropogenic forcing
作者: Hosking J.S. ; Orr A. ; Bracegirdle T.J. ; Turner J.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9531
EISSN: 1944-9262
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 1 起始页码: 367
结束页码: 376
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Amundsen Sea Low
; CMIP5
; greenhouse gases
; surface climate
; temperature trends
; West Antarctica
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Greenhouse gases
; Saline water
; Wind
; Amundsen Sea
; CMIP5
; Surface climate
; Temperature trends
; West antarctica
; Climate models
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate modeling
; future prospect
; global climate
; greenhouse gas
; meridional circulation
; reconstruction
; seasonality
; sensitivity analysis
; spatiotemporal analysis
; temperature profile
; trend analysis
; Amundsen Sea
; Antarctica
; Ross Sea
; Southern Ocean
; West Antarctica
英文摘要: The Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) is a major driver of West Antarctic climate variability, with the potential to accelerate the loss of glacial ice. Using the 11 global climate models which most reliably simulate the seasonality in ASL location, we assess the ASL sensitivity to projected future changes using the CMIP5 historical (1951-2000) and representative concentration pathway experiment RCP8.5 (2051-2100). For the first time, we show that the future ASL will likely migrate poleward in summer (December, January, and February) and autumn (March, April, and May), and eastward in autumn and winter (June, July, and August). The autumn-winter changes drive colder southerly winds over the Ross Sea and warmer northerly winds toward the Antarctic Peninsula. This is consistent with recent trends in ERA-Interim reanalysis meridional winds (1979-2014) and reconstructed temperature (1957-2006), suggesting that the impact of anthropogenic forcing on the ASL is likely to play an important role on both past and future patterns of West Antarctic climate variability. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84970892362&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL067143&partnerID=40&md5=c909b67174f7a92fb84396e965dec99b
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10494
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: British Antarctic Survey, NERC, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Hosking J.S.,Orr A.,Bracegirdle T.J.,et al. Future circulation changes off West Antarctica: Sensitivity of the Amundsen Sea Low to projected anthropogenic forcing[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(1).