DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069150
论文题名: Using climate regionalization to understand Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) precipitation performance for the Conterminous United States (CONUS)
作者: Regonda S.K. ; Zaitchik B.F. ; Badr H.S. ; Rodell M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9604
EISSN: 1944-9335
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 12 起始页码: 6485
结束页码: 6492
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CFSv2
; CONUS
; model evaluation
; precipitation
; regionalization
; seasonal forecast
Scopus关键词: Forecasting
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; CFSv2
; CONUS
; Model evaluation
; regionalization
; Seasonal forecasts
; Climate models
英文摘要: Dynamically based seasonal forecasts are prone to systematic spatial biases due to imperfections in the underlying global climate model (GCM). This can result in low-forecast skill when the GCM misplaces teleconnections or fails to resolve geographic barriers, even if the prediction of large-scale dynamics is accurate. To characterize and address this issue, this study applies objective climate regionalization to identify discrepancies between the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) and precipitation observations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Regionalization shows that CFSv2 1 month forecasts capture the general spatial character of warm season precipitation variability but that forecast regions systematically differ from observation in some transition zones. CFSv2 predictive skill for these misclassified areas is systematically reduced relative to correctly regionalized areas and CONUS as a whole. In these incorrectly regionalized areas, higher skill can be obtained by using a regional-scale forecast in place of the local grid cell prediction. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84983314435&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL069150&partnerID=40&md5=758757d390b0333e10850451c82afc8c
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10567
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Regonda S.K.,Zaitchik B.F.,Badr H.S.,et al. Using climate regionalization to understand Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) precipitation performance for the Conterminous United States (CONUS)[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(12).