globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1038/NGEO3031
论文题名:
Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °c
作者: Millar R.J.; Fuglestvedt J.S.; Friedlingstein P.; Rogelj J.; Grubb M.J.; Matthews H.D.; Skeie R.B.; Forster P.M.; Frame D.J.; Allen M.R.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2017
卷: 10, 期:10
起始页码: 741
结束页码: 747
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: carbon cycle ; carbon dioxide ; CMIP ; emission control ; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ; international agreement ; temperature ; warming
英文摘要: The Paris Agreement has opened debate on whether limiting warming to 1.5 °C is compatible with current emission pledges and warming of about 0.9 °C from the mid-nineteenth century to the present decade. We show that limiting cumulative post-2015 CO2 emissions to about 200 GtC would limit post-2015 warming to less than 0.6 °C in 66% of Earth system model members of the CMIP5 ensemble with no mitigation of other climate drivers, increasing to 240 GtC with ambitious non-CO2 mitigation. We combine a simple climate-carbon-cycle model with estimated ranges for key climate system properties from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Assuming emissions peak and decline to below current levels by 2030, and continue thereafter on a much steeper decline, which would be historically unprecedented but consistent with a standard ambitious mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), results in a likely range of peak warming of 1.2-2.0 °C above the mid-nineteenth century. If CO2 emissions are continuously adjusted over time to limit 2100 warming to 1.5 °C, with ambitious non-CO2 mitigation, net future cumulative CO2 emissions are unlikely to prove less than 250 GtC and unlikely greater than 540 GtC. Hence, limiting warming to 1.5 °C is not yet a geophysical impossibility, but is likely to require delivery on strengthened pledges for 2030 followed by challengingly deep and rapid mitigation. Strengthening near-term emissions reductions would hedge against a high climate response or subsequent reduction rates proving economically, technically or politically unfeasible. © 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/105701
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: College of Engineering, Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, United Kingdom; Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo (CICERO), PO Box 1129, Blindern, Oslo, Norway; Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, Zurich, Switzerland; Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, United Kingdom; Concordia University, Montreal, QC, Canada; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington, New Zealand; Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Millar R.J.,Fuglestvedt J.S.,Friedlingstein P.,et al. Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °c[J]. Nature Geoscience,2017-01-01,10(10)
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