DOI: 10.1038/NGEO3017
论文题名: Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity
作者: Knutti R. ; Rugenstein M.A.A. ; Hegerl G.C.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2017
卷: 10, 期: 10 起始页码: 727
结束页码: 736
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: carbon dioxide
; climate conditions
; environmental history
; equilibrium
; global change
; global warming
; long-term change
; prediction
; quantitative analysis
; radiative forcing
; timescale
英文摘要: Equilibrium climate sensitivity characterizes the Earth's long-term global temperature response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration. It has reached almost iconic status as the single number that describes how severe climate change will be. The consensus on the 'likely' range for climate sensitivity of 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C today is the same as given by Jule Charney in 1979, but now it is based on quantitative evidence from across the climate system and throughout climate history. The quest to constrain climate sensitivity has revealed important insights into the timescales of the climate system response, natural variability and limitations in observations and climate models, but also concerns about the simple concepts underlying climate sensitivity and radiative forcing, which opens avenues to better understand and constrain the climate response to forcing. Estimates of the transient climate response are better constrained by observed warming and are more relevant for predicting warming over the next decades. Newer metrics relating global warming directly to the total emitted CO2 show that in order to keep warming to within 2 °C, future CO2 emissions have to remain strongly limited, irrespective of climate sensitivity being at the high or low end. © 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/105705
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Knutti R.,Rugenstein M.A.A.,Hegerl G.C.. Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity[J]. Nature Geoscience,2017-01-01,10(10)