climate change
; climate modeling
; decadal variation
; probability
; satellite data
; temperature
; trend analysis
; troposphere
; warming
英文摘要:
In the early twenty-first century, satellite-derived tropospheric warming trends were generally smaller than trends estimated from a large multi-model ensemble. Because observations and coupled model simulations do not have the same phasing of natural internal variability, such decadal differences in simulated and observed warming rates invariably occur. Here we analyse global-mean tropospheric temperatures from satellites and climate model simulations to examine whether warming rate differences over the satellite era can be explained by internal climate variability alone. We find that in the last two decades of the twentieth century, differences between modelled and observed tropospheric temperature trends are broadly consistent with internal variability. Over most of the early twenty-first century, however, model tropospheric warming is substantially larger than observed; warming rate differences are generally outside the range of trends arising from internal variability. The probability that multi-decadal internal variability fully explains the asymmetry between the late twentieth and early twenty-first century results is low (between zero and about 9%). It is also unlikely that this asymmetry is due to the combined effects of internal variability and a model error in climate sensitivity. We conclude that model overestimation of tropospheric warming in the early twenty-first century is partly due to systematic deficiencies in some of the post-2000 external forcings used in the model simulations.
Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New SouthWales, New SouthWales, Australia; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University OfWashington, Seattle, WA, United States; Center for Satellite Applications and Research, NOAA/NESDIS, College Park, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Santer B.D.,Fyfe J.C.,Pallotta G.,et al. Causes of differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates[J]. Nature Geoscience,2017-01-01,10(7)