DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2911
论文题名: Complexity in estimating past and future extreme short-duration rainfall
作者: Zhang X. ; Zwiers F.W. ; Li G. ; Wan H. ; Cannon A.J.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2017
卷: 10, 期: 4 起始页码: 255
结束页码: 259
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: atmospheric convection
; climate modeling
; complexity
; extreme event
; future prospect
; rainfall
; regional climate
; temperature
; warming
; water content
英文摘要: Warming of the climate is now unequivocal. The water holding capacity of the atmosphere increases by about 7% per °C of warming, which in turn raises the expectation of more intense extreme rainfall events. Meeting the demand for robust projections for extreme short-duration rainfall is challenging, however, because of our poor understanding of its past and future behaviour. The characterization of past changes is severely limited by the availability of observational data. Climate models, including typical regional climate models, do not directly simulate all extreme rainfall producing processes, such as convection. Recently developed convection-permitting models better simulate extreme precipitation, but simulations are not yet widely available due to their computational cost, and they have their own uncertainties. Attention has thus been focused on precipitation-temperature relationships in the hope of obtaining more robust extreme precipitation projections that exploit higher confidence temperature projections. However, the observed precipitation-temperature scaling relationships have been established almost exclusively by linking precipitation extremes with day-to-day temperature variations. These scaling relationships do not appear to provide a reliable basis for projecting future precipitation extremes. Until better methods are available, the relationship of the atmosphere's water holding capacity with temperature provides better guidance for planners in the mid-latitudes, albeit with large uncertainties. © 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/105813
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Zhang X.,Zwiers F.W.,Li G.,et al. Complexity in estimating past and future extreme short-duration rainfall[J]. Nature Geoscience,2017-01-01,10(4)