DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069522
论文题名: Tide and skew surge independence: New insights for flood risk
作者: Williams J. ; Horsburgh K.J. ; Williams J.A. ; Proctor R.N.F.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9618
EISSN: 1944-9349
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 12 起始页码: 6410
结束页码: 6417
语种: 英语
英文关键词: skew surge
; storm surge
; tides
Scopus关键词: Storms
; Tide gages
; Tides
; Water levels
; Coastal communities
; Joint probability
; Natural variability
; Observation based analysis
; Skew surge
; Storm surges
; Weather systems
; Worst case scenario
; Floods
; extreme event
; flood
; sea level change
; skewness
; storm surge
; tidal cycle
; tide gauge
; water depth
; Ireland
; Netherlands
; United Kingdom
; United States
英文摘要: Storm surges are a significant hazard to coastal communities around the world, putting lives at risk and costing billions of dollars in damage. Understanding how storm surges and high tides interact is crucial for estimating extreme water levels so that we can protect coastal communities. We demonstrate that in a tidal regime the best measure of a storm surge is the skew surge, the difference between the observed and predicted high water within a tidal cycle. Based on tide gauge records spanning decades from the UK, U.S., Netherlands, and Ireland we show that the magnitude of high water exerts no influence on the size of the most extreme skew surges. This is the first systematic proof that any storm surge can occur on any tide, which is essential for understanding worst-case scenarios. The lack of surge generation dependency on water depth emphasizes the dominant natural variability of weather systems in an observation-based analysis. Weak seasonal relationships between skew surges and high waters were identified at a minority of locations where long-period changes to the tidal cycle interact with the storm season. Our results allow advances to be made in methods for estimating the joint probabilities of storm surges and tides. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84977592695&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL069522&partnerID=40&md5=3705d47e0d5f41a29cb5c3b5010eb836
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10581
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Williams J.,Horsburgh K.J.,Williams J.A.,et al. Tide and skew surge independence: New insights for flood risk[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(12).