DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2752
论文题名: North Atlantic summer storm tracks over Europe dominated by internal variability over the past millennium
作者: Gagen M.H. ; Zorita E. ; Mccarroll D. ; Zahn M. ; Young G.H.F. ; Robertson I.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2016
卷: 9, 期: 8 起始页码: 630
结束页码: 635
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; cloud cover
; greenhouse effect
; greenhouse gas
; precipitation (climatology)
; reconstruction
; stochasticity
; storm track
; summer
; temperature effect
; twentieth century
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: Certain large, sustained anomalies in European temperatures in the past millennium are probably the result of internal variation. Such internal variations can modulate regional temperatures away from the expected response to greenhouse gas forcing. Here we assess the causes of European summer temperature variability over the past millennium using temperature observations, simulations and reconstructions. We find multidecadal-mean summer temperatures have varied within a span of 1 K, largely controlled by external forcing. By contrast, we find subcontinental variations, described by the temperature contrast between northern and southern Europe (the meridional temperature gradient), vary with a span of 2 K, and are controlled by internal processes. These variations are the result of redistributions of precipitation and cloud cover linked to oscillations in the position of the summer storm track. In contrast to recent twentieth-century winter-time trends, variations of the summer storm track over the past millennium show a weak response to external forcing, and instead are dominated by stochastic internal variability. We argue that the response of European summer temperatures to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing is likely to be spatially modulated by the same stochastic internal processes that have caused periods of cool, wet summers in northern Europe over the last millennium. © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/105949
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Department of Geography, Swansea University, Singleton Park, Swansea, United Kingdom; Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Max-Planck-Stra'e 1, Geesthacht, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Gagen M.H.,Zorita E.,Mccarroll D.,et al. North Atlantic summer storm tracks over Europe dominated by internal variability over the past millennium[J]. Nature Geoscience,2016-01-01,9(8)