globalchange  > 科学计划与规划
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068520
论文题名:
Characterizing the extreme 2015 snowpack deficit in the Sierra Nevada (USA) and the implications for drought recovery
作者: Margulis S.A.; Cortés G.; Girotto M.; Huning L.S.; Li D.; Durand M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9639
EISSN: 1944-9370
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期:12
起始页码: 6341
结束页码: 6349
语种: 英语
英文关键词: drought ; snowpack ; water supply
Scopus关键词: Intelligent systems ; Monte Carlo methods ; Snow ; Water supply ; Confidence interval ; Elevational gradients ; In-situ data ; O-conditions ; Reanalysis ; Return periods ; Sierra Nevada ; Snowpack ; Drought ; confidence interval ; data set ; drought ; El Nino ; Monte Carlo analysis ; simulation ; snowpack ; spatial distribution ; spatiotemporal analysis ; water supply ; California ; Sierra Nevada [California] ; United States
英文摘要: Analysis of the Sierra Nevada (USA) snowpack using a new spatially distributed snow reanalysis data set, in combination with longer term in situ data, indicates that water year 2015 was a truly extreme (dry) year. The range-wide peak snow volume was characterized by a return period of over 600 years (95% confidence interval between 100 and 4400 years) having a strong elevational gradient with a return period at lower elevations over an order of magnitude larger than those at higher elevations. The 2015 conditions, occurring on top of three previous drought years, led to an accumulated (multiyear) snowpack deficit of ~ −22 km3, the highest over the 65 years analyzed. Early estimates based on 1 April snow course data indicate that the snowpack drought deficit will not be overcome in 2016, despite historically strong El Niño conditions. Results based on a probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation show that recovery from the snowpack drought will likely take about 4 years. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84977576400&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL068520&partnerID=40&md5=b1f6bdee62c0998ca0189133385f7152
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10602
Appears in Collections:科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Margulis S.A.,Cortés G.,Girotto M.,et al. Characterizing the extreme 2015 snowpack deficit in the Sierra Nevada (USA) and the implications for drought recovery[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(12).
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