DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2596
论文题名: Downturn in scaling of UK extreme rainfall with temperature for future hottest days
作者: Chan S.C. ; Kendon E.J. ; Roberts N.M. ; Fowler H.J. ; Blenkinsop S.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2016
卷: 9, 期: 1 起始页码: 24
结束页码: 28
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: anticyclone
; climate modeling
; convection
; extreme event
; future prospect
; precipitation intensity
; scale effect
; storm
; temperature
; vapor pressure
; United Kingdom
英文摘要: Extreme daily precipitation is thought to increase with temperature at a rate of 6.5% per K according to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship between temperature and saturation vapour pressure. A wide range of scaling relationships has been observed globally for extreme daily and hourly precipitation, with evidence of scaling above 6.5% per K for sub-daily extreme precipitation in some regions. Only high-resolution climate models can simulate this scaling relationship. Here we examine the scaling of hourly extreme precipitation intensities in a future climate using experiments with a model for the southern UK with kilometre-scale resolution. Our model simulates the present-day scaling relationship at 6.5% per K, in agreement with observations. The simulated overall future increase in extreme precipitation follows the same relationship. However, UK extreme precipitation intensities decline at temperatures above about 22 °C-a temperature range that is not well sampled in the present-day integration-as a result of a more frequent occurrence of anticyclonic weather systems. Anticyclones produce more days with strong daytime heating, but are not favourable to the development of deep intense convective storms. We conclude that future extreme hourly precipitation intensities cannot simply be extrapolated from present-day temperature scaling, and demonstrate the pitfalls of using regional surface temperature as a scaling variable. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106097
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Met Office at Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Chan S.C.,Kendon E.J.,Roberts N.M.,et al. Downturn in scaling of UK extreme rainfall with temperature for future hottest days[J]. Nature Geoscience,2016-01-01,9(1)