DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2581
论文题名: Distinct energy budgets for anthropogenic and natural changes during global warming hiatus
作者: Xie S.-P. ; Kosaka Y. ; Okumura Y.M.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2016
卷: 9, 期: 1 起始页码: 29
结束页码: 33
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: aerosol
; anthropogenic effect
; climate feedback
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; cooling
; energy budget
; global warming
; greenhouse gas
; hiatus
; surface temperature
; top of atmosphere
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
英文摘要: The Earth's energy budget for the past four decades can now be closed, and it supports anthropogenic greenhouse forcing as the cause for climate warming. However, closure depends on invoking an unrealistically large increase in aerosol cooling during the so-called global warming hiatus since the late 1990s (refs,) that was due partly to tropical Pacific Ocean cooling. The difficulty with this closure lies in the assumption that the same climate feedback applies to both anthropogenic warming and natural cooling. Here we analyse climate model simulations with and without anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, and show that top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and global mean surface temperature are much less tightly coupled for natural decadal variability than for the greenhouse-gas-induced response, implying distinct climate feedback between anthropogenic warming and natural variability. In addition, we identify a phase difference between top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and global mean surface temperature such that ocean heat uptake tends to slow down during the surface warming hiatus. This result deviates from existing energy theory but we find that it is broadly consistent with observations. Our study highlights the importance of developing metrics that distinguish anthropogenic change from natural variations to attribute climate variability and to estimate climate sensitivity from observations. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106100
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, 9500 Gilman Drive MC 0206, San Diego, CA, United States; Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Tokyo, Japan; Institute for Geophysics, University of Texas at Austin, 10100 Burnet Road, Austin, TX, United States
Recommended Citation:
Xie S.-P.,Kosaka Y.,Okumura Y.M.. Distinct energy budgets for anthropogenic and natural changes during global warming hiatus[J]. Nature Geoscience,2016-01-01,9(1)