DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2595
论文题名: A scientific critique of the two-degree climate change target
作者: Knutti R. ; Rogelj J. ; Sedlácek J. ; Fischer E.M.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2016
卷: 9, 期: 1 起始页码: 13
结束页码: 18
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: conference proceeding
; emission control
; future prospect
; global climate
; global warming
; perception
; temperature
; Copenhagen [(CTY) Hovedstaden]
; Denmark
; Hovedstaden
英文摘要: The world's governments agreed to limit global mean temperature change to below 2 °C compared with pre-industrial levels in the years following the 2009 climate conference in Copenhagen. This 2 °C warming target is perceived by the public as a universally accepted goal, identified by scientists as a safe limit that avoids dangerous climate change. This perception is incorrect: no scientific assessment has clearly justified or defended the 2 °C target as a safe level of warming, and indeed, this is not a problem that science alone can address. We argue that global temperature is the best climate target quantity, but it is unclear what level can be considered safe. The 2 °C target is useful for anchoring discussions, but has been ineffective in triggering the required emission reductions; debates on considering a lower target are strongly at odds with the current real-world level of action. These debates are moot, however, as the decisions that need to be taken now to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C are very similar. We need to agree how to start, not where to end mitigation. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106109
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 16, Zürich, Switzerland; Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, Austria
Recommended Citation:
Knutti R.,Rogelj J.,Sedlácek J.,et al. A scientific critique of the two-degree climate change target[J]. Nature Geoscience,2016-01-01,9(1)