DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2427
论文题名: Earthquake supercycle in subduction zones controlled by the width of the seismogenic zone
作者: Herrendörfer R. ; Van Dinther Y. ; Gerya T. ; Dalguer L.A.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2015
卷: 8, 期: 6 起始页码: 471
结束页码: 474
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: cyclic loading
; dip
; earthquake rupture
; heterogeneity
; seismic zone
; seismicity
; subduction zone
; thrust
; two-dimensional modeling
英文摘要: A supercycle describes a long-term cluster of diferently-sized megathrust earthquakes, leading up to the final complete failure of a subduction zone segment1,2. The precise controls on supercycles are unclear, although structural and frictional heterogeneities are proposed1.We recognize that supercycles are suggested to occur in those regions1-4 where the estimated downdip width of the seismogenic zone5-7 is larger than average. Here we investigate the link between supercycles and the seismogenic zone downdip width using a two-dimensional numerical model8. In our simulations, the first megathrust earthquakes in a supercycle generally rupture only the outermost parts of the seismogenic zone. These partial ruptures are stopped owing to a large excess of strength over stress, and transfer stresses towards the centre of the seismogenic zone. In addition to the continued tectonic loading, they thereby gradually reduce the strength excess so that the largest megathrust events finally rupture the entire seismogenic zone and release most of the accumulated stress. A greater width increases the average strength excess and thus favours supercycles over ordinary cycles of only similarly sized complete ruptures.Ourresults imply that larger than thus far observed earthquakes could conclude a supercycle where seismogenic zone widths are larger than average. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106169
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Institute of Geophysics, ETH Zurich, Sonneggstrasse 5, Zurich, Switzerland; Swissnuclear, Aarauerstrasse 55, Olten, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Herrendörfer R.,Van Dinther Y.,Gerya T.,et al. Earthquake supercycle in subduction zones controlled by the width of the seismogenic zone[J]. Nature Geoscience,2015-01-01,8(6)