climate modeling
; cooling
; global climate
; global ocean
; marine environment
; quality control
; radiative forcing
; reconstruction
; sea surface temperature
; trend analysis
; volcanic eruption
英文摘要:
The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years-a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings-global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (ce) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 ce that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 ce, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 ce is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content.
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong, Northfields AvenueNSW, Australia; Department of Geology, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States; Earth and Life Institute, Université de Louvain, Place Pasteur 3, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, CEREGE UM34, Aix-en-Provence Cedex 4, France; Department of Environmental Chemistry, Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDÆA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom; U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, Menlo Park, CA, United States; Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Department of Geography, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain; Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States; Centre for Past Climate Studies and Arctic Research Centre, Department of Geoscience, Aarhus University, Hoegh-Guldbergs Gade 2, Aarhus C, Denmark; Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ. Paris 06), CNRS-IRD-MNHN, LOCEAN Laboratory, 4 Place Jussieu, Paris, France; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China; Institute for Geophysics, Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, J. J. Pickle Research Campus, Building 196, 10100 Burnet Road (R2200), Austin, TX, United States; Department of Geology, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, Lund, Sweden; Department of Geography, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
McGregor H.V.,Evans M.N.,Goosse H.,et al. Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era[J]. Nature Geoscience,2015-01-01,8(9)