DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2449
论文题名: Tug of war on summertime circulation between radiative forcing and sea surface warming
作者: Shaw T.A. ; Voigt A.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2015
卷: 8, 期: 7 起始页码: 560
结束页码: 566
语种: 英语
英文摘要: During summertime, monsoons and subtropical anticyclones shape precipitation and regional circulation patterns across the globe. In state-of-the-art climate models, the average response of the Asian monsoon cyclone, Pacific ocean anticyclone and jet stream to global warming is weak and responses of different models are diverse. Here we use a suite of simulations with atmospheric general circulation models with prescribed sea surface temperatures to separate the circulation responses to direct radiative forcing and indirect sea surface temperature warming. We find that the two contributions oppose each other. Using idealized aquaplanet simulations, we show that the different circulation responses are directly connected to the opposite responses of land-sea thermal contrast to the two forcing components. This tug of war on the circulation response to global warming is analogous to the seasonal response to insolation, which involves opposite land-sea thermal contrasts and circulation patterns governed by quasi-equilibrium thermodynamics and stationary-wave dynamics. We conclude that it is important to distinguish weak circulation responses to global warming that arise owing to compensating effects that are robust and physically understood from those that are associated with genuine uncertainty. We note that compensation places fundamental limits on the detection and attribution of circulation responses to global warming. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106355
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Shaw T.A.,Voigt A.. Tug of war on summertime circulation between radiative forcing and sea surface warming[J]. Nature Geoscience,2015-01-01,8(7)