DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2040
论文题名: Small influence of solar variability on climate over the past millennium
作者: Schurer A.P. ; Tett S.F.B. ; Hegerl G.C.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2014
卷: 7, 期: 2 起始页码: 104
结束页码: 108
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: air temperature
; climate variation
; greenhouse gas
; Little Ice Age
; Medieval
; Northern Hemisphere
; numerical model
; paleoclimate
; solar activity
; volcanic eruption
英文摘要: The climate of the past millennium was marked by substantial decadal and centennial scale variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Low solar activity has been linked to cooling during the Little Ice Age (AD 1450-1850; ref.) and there may have been solar forcing of regional warmth during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (AD 950-1250; ref.). The amplitude of the associated changes is, however, poorly constrained, with estimates of solar forcing spanning almost an order of magnitude. Numerical simulations tentatively indicate that a small amplitude best agrees with available temperature reconstructions. Here we compare the climatic fingerprints of high and low solar forcing derived from model simulations with an ensemble of surface air temperature reconstructions for the past millennium. Our methodology also accounts for internal climate variability and other external drivers such as volcanic eruptions, as well as uncertainties in the proxy reconstructions and model output. We find that neither a high magnitude of solar forcing nor a strong climate effect of that forcing agree with the temperature reconstructions. We instead conclude that solar forcing probably had a minor effect on Northern Hemisphere climate over the past 1,000 years, while, volcanic eruptions and changes in greenhouse gas concentrations seem to be the most important influence over this period. © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106447
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3JW, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Schurer A.P.,Tett S.F.B.,Hegerl G.C.. Small influence of solar variability on climate over the past millennium[J]. Nature Geoscience,2014-01-01,7(2)