DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2098
论文题名: Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature
作者: Santer B.D. ; Bonfils C. ; Painter J.F. ; Zelinka M.D. ; Mears C. ; Solomon S. ; Schmidt G.A. ; Fyfe J.C. ; Cole J.N.S. ; Nazarenko L. ; Taylor K.E. ; Wentz F.J.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2014
卷: 7, 期: 3 起始页码: 185
结束页码: 189
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: aerosol
; climate modeling
; decadal variation
; error analysis
; greenhouse gas
; optical depth
; simulation
; troposphere
; twenty first century
; volcanic eruption
; Pinatubo
英文摘要: Despite continued growth in atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases, global mean surface and tropospheric temperatures have shown slower warming since 1998 than previously. Possible explanations for the slow-down include internal climate variability, external cooling influences and observational errors. Several recent modelling studies have examined the contribution of early twenty-first-century volcanic eruptions to the muted surface warming. Here we present a detailed analysis of the impact of recent volcanic forcing on tropospheric temperature, based on observations as well as climate model simulations. We identify statistically significant correlations between observations of stratospheric aerosol optical depth and satellite-based estimates of both tropospheric temperature and short-wave fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. We show that climate model simulations without the effects of early twenty-first-century volcanic eruptions overestimate the tropospheric warming observed since 1998. In two simulations with more realistic volcanic influences following the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, differences between simulated and observed tropospheric temperature trends over the period 1998 to 2012 are up to 15% smaller, with large uncertainties in the magnitude of the effect. To reduce these uncertainties, better observations of eruption-specific properties of volcanic aerosols are needed, as well as improved representation of these eruption-specific properties in climate model simulations. © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106579
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, United States; Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA 95401, United States; Massachusetts Institute of Technology,Earth,Atmospheric,and Planetary Sciences, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States; NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, United States; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Santer B.D.,Bonfils C.,Painter J.F.,et al. Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature[J]. Nature Geoscience,2014-01-01,7(3)