globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1999
论文题名:
Statistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changes
作者: Estrada F.; Perron P.; Martínez-López B.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2013
卷: 6, 期:12
起始页码: 1050
结束页码: 1055
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: anthropogenic effect ; carbon dioxide ; climate modeling ; cooling ; global warming ; greenhouse gas ; human activity ; methane ; Montreal Protocol ; nature-society relations ; ozone depletion ; radiative forcing ; temperature gradient ; time series ; twentieth century ; war
英文摘要: The warming of the climate system is unequivocal as evidenced by an increase in global temperatures by 0.8C over the past century. However, the attribution of the observed warming to human activities remains less clear, particularly because of the apparent slow-down in warming since the late 1990s. Here we analyse radiative forcing and temperature time series with state-of-the-art statistical methods to address this question without climate model simulations. We show that long-term trends in total radiative forcing and temperatures have largely been determined by atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and modulated by other radiative factors. We identify a pronounced increase in the growth rates of both temperatures and radiative forcing around 1960, which marks the onset of sustained global warming. Our analyses also reveal a contribution of human interventions to two periods when global warming slowed down. Our statistical analysis suggests that the reduction in the emissions of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol, as well as a reduction in methane emissions, contributed to the lower rate of warming since the 1990s. Furthermore, we identify a contribution from the two world wars and the Great Depression to the documented cooling in the mid-twentieth century, through lower carbon dioxide emissions. We conclude that reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are effective in slowing the rate of warming in the short term. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106635
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
科学计划与规划

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作者单位: Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Circuito Exterior, 04510 Mexico, DF, Mexico; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Department of Economics, Boston University, 270 Bay State Rd, Boston, MA 02215, United States

Recommended Citation:
Estrada F.,Perron P.,Martínez-López B.. Statistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changes[J]. Nature Geoscience,2013-01-01,6(12)
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