globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1741
论文题名:
Simulated resilience of tropical rainforests to CO2 -induced climate change
作者: Huntingford C.; Zelazowski P.; Galbraith D.; Mercado L.M.; Sitch S.; Fisher R.; Lomas M.; Walker A.P.; Jones C.D.; Booth B.B.B.; Malhi Y.; Hemming D.; Kay G.; Good P.; Lewis S.L.; Phillips O.L.; Atkin O.K.; Lloyd J.; Gloor E.; Zaragoza-Castells J.; Meir P.; Betts R.; Harris P.P.; Nobre C.; Marengo J.; Cox P.M.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2013
卷: 6, 期:4
起始页码: 268
结束页码: 273
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: assessment method ; biodegradation ; carbon dioxide ; climate change ; climate modeling ; deforestation ; ecosystem resilience ; numerical model ; physiological response ; precipitation (climatology) ; rainforest ; temperature effect ; tropical environment ; tropical forest ; twenty first century ; vegetation structure ; Africa ; Asia ; Western Hemisphere
英文摘要: How tropical forest carbon stocks might alter in response to changes in climate and atmospheric composition is uncertain. However, assessing potential future carbon loss from tropical forests is important for evaluating the efficacy of programmes for reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation. Uncertainties are associated with different carbon stock responses in models with different representations of vegetation processes on the one hand, and differences in projected changes in temperature and precipitation patterns on the other hand. Here we present a systematic exploration of these sources of uncertainty, along with uncertainty arising from different emissions scenarios for all three main tropical forest regions: the Americas (that is, Amazonia and Central America), Africa and Asia. Using simulations with 22 climate models and the MOSES-TRIFFID land surface scheme, we find that only in one of the simulations are tropical forests projected to lose biomass by the end of the twenty-first century - and then only for the Americas. When comparing with alternative models of plant physiological processes, we find that the largest uncertainties are associated with plant physiological responses, and then with future emissions scenarios. Uncertainties from differences in the climate projections are significantly smaller. Despite the considerable uncertainties, we conclude that there is evidence of forest resilience for all three regions. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106829
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
科学计划与规划

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作者单位: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford OX10 8BB, United Kingdom; Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, United Kingdom; School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom; Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Amory Building, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4RJ, United Kingdom; Climate and Global Dynamics, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305, United States; Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; Department of Geography, University College London, Pearson Building, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom; Division of Plant Sciences, Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia; Centre for Tropical Environment and Sustainability Science (TESS), School of Earth and Environmental Science, James Cook University, Cairns, QLD 4878, Australia; School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, United Kingdom; CCST/Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Av. dos Astronautas, 1758, Jd. Da Granja. Sao Jose dos Campos, SP 12227-010, Brazil; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Huntingford C.,Zelazowski P.,Galbraith D.,et al. Simulated resilience of tropical rainforests to CO2 -induced climate change[J]. Nature Geoscience,2013-01-01,6(4)
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