DOI: 10.1111/ele.12834
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85031496416
论文题名: Modelling time to population extinction when individual reproduction is autocorrelated
作者: Lee A.M. ; Sæther B.-E. ; Markussen S.S. ; Engen S.
刊名: Ecology Letters
ISSN: 1461023X
EISSN: 1461-0248
出版年: 2017
卷: 20, 期: 11 起始页码: 1385
结束页码: 1394
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Age structure
; demographic stochasticity
; dynamic heterogeneity
; environmental stochasticity
; extinction
; life history
; matrix model
; moose
; population growth
; reproductive autocorrelation
英文摘要: In nature, individual reproductive success is seldom independent from year to year, due to factors such as reproductive costs and individual heterogeneity. However, population projection models that incorporate temporal autocorrelations in individual reproduction can be difficult to parameterise, particularly when data are sparse. We therefore examine whether such models are necessary to avoid biased estimates of stochastic population growth and extinction risk, by comparing output from a matrix population model that incorporates reproductive autocorrelations to output from a standard age-structured matrix model that does not. We use a range of parameterisations, including a case study using moose data, treating probabilities of switching reproductive class as either fixed or fluctuating. Expected time to extinction from the two models is found to differ by only small amounts (under 10%) for most parameterisations, indicating that explicitly accounting for individual reproductive autocorrelations is in most cases not necessary to avoid bias in extinction estimates. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/107554
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway; Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Lee A.M.,Sæther B.-E.,Markussen S.S.,et al. Modelling time to population extinction when individual reproduction is autocorrelated[J]. Ecology Letters,2017-01-01,20(11)