DOI: 10.1111/ele.12671
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84990831237
论文题名: When can the cause of a population decline be determined?
作者: Hefley T.J. ; Hooten M.B. ; Drake J.M. ; Russell R.E. ; Walsh D.P.
刊名: Ecology Letters
ISSN: 1461023X
EISSN: 1461-0248
出版年: 2016
卷: 19, 期: 11 起始页码: 1353
结束页码: 1362
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Allee effect
; autocorrelation
; causal inference
; density dependence
; extinction
; multicollinearity
; population dynamics
; temporal confounding
; time series
Scopus关键词: animal
; biological model
; computer simulation
; Daphnia
; ecosystem
; physiology
; population dynamics
; statistical model
; time factor
; Animals
; Computer Simulation
; Daphnia
; Ecosystem
; Logistic Models
; Models, Biological
; Population Dynamics
; Time Factors
英文摘要: Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/107702
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Statistics and Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Colorado Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Unit, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, National Wildlife Health Center, Madison, WI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Hefley T.J.,Hooten M.B.,Drake J.M.,et al. When can the cause of a population decline be determined?[J]. Ecology Letters,2016-01-01,19(11)