globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1111/ele.12443
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84931562756
论文题名:
The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants
作者: Petchey O.L.; Pontarp M.; Massie T.M.; Kéfi S.; Ozgul A.; Weilenmann M.; Palamara G.M.; Altermatt F.; Matthews B.; Levine J.M.; Childs D.Z.; Mcgill B.J.; Schaepman M.E.; Schmid B.; Spaak P.; Beckerman A.P.; Pennekamp F.; Pearse I.S.
刊名: Ecology Letters
ISSN: 1461023X
EISSN: 1461-0248
出版年: 2015
卷: 18, 期:7
起始页码: 597
结束页码: 611
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Dynamics ; Ecosystems ; Environmental change ; Forecasting ; Futures ; Prediction ; Scenarios
Scopus关键词: abundance ; body size ; community structure ; environmental change ; forecasting method ; phylogenetics ; population distribution ; population structure ; prediction ; research and development ; spatiotemporal analysis ; temperature effect ; uncertainty analysis ; ecology ; ecosystem ; evolution ; forecasting ; phylogeny ; procedures ; statistical model ; Biological Evolution ; Ecology ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Models, Statistical ; Phylogeny
英文摘要: Forecasts of ecological dynamics in changing environments are increasingly important, and are available for a plethora of variables, such as species abundance and distribution, community structure and ecosystem processes. There is, however, a general absence of knowledge about how far into the future, or other dimensions (space, temperature, phylogenetic distance), useful ecological forecasts can be made, and about how features of ecological systems relate to these distances. The ecological forecast horizon is the dimensional distance for which useful forecasts can be made. Five case studies illustrate the influence of various sources of uncertainty (e.g. parameter uncertainty, environmental variation, demographic stochasticity and evolution), level of ecological organisation (e.g. population or community), and organismal properties (e.g. body size or number of trophic links) on temporal, spatial and phylogenetic forecast horizons. Insights from these case studies demonstrate that the ecological forecast horizon is a flexible and powerful tool for researching and communicating ecological predictability. It also has potential for motivating and guiding agenda setting for ecological forecasting research and development. © 2015 The Authors Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/107966
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, Zurich, Switzerland; Department of Aquatic Ecology, Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Überlandstrasse 133, Dübendorf, Switzerland; Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden; Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, CC065, Place Eugène Bataillon, Montpellier Cedex 05, France; Department of Aquatic Ecology, Center for Ecology, Evolution, and Biogeochemistry, Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Kastanienbaum, Seestrasse 79, Luzern, Switzerland; Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, Zurich, Switzerland; Animal and Plant Sciences, Sheffield University, Western Bank, Sheffield, South Yorkshire, United Kingdom; School of Biology and Ecology and Mitchel Center for Sustainability Solutions, University of Maine, 5751 Murray Hall, Orono, ME, United States; University of Zurich, Department of Geography, Remote Sensing Laboratories, Winterthurerstrasse 190, Zurich, Switzerland; The Illinois Natural History Survey, 1816 South Oak Street, MC 652, Champaign, IL, United States

Recommended Citation:
Petchey O.L.,Pontarp M.,Massie T.M.,et al. The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants[J]. Ecology Letters,2015-01-01,18(7)
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