DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2017.12.001
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85039953095
论文题名: Changes in surface air temperature over China under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming targets
作者: Fu Y.-H. ; Lu R.-Y. ; Guo D.
刊名: Advances in Climate Change Research
ISSN: 16749278
出版年: 2018
卷: 9, 期: 2 起始页码: 112
结束页码: 119
语种: 英语
英文关键词: 1.5 °C target
; 2.0 °C target
; China
; Temperature
; Warming
英文摘要: This study investigated the projected changes in the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) over China under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C targets, by analyzing the outputs from 22 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Under the 1.5 °C target, the scope of changes in the average SAT over China is quite narrow and has the largest probability to increase by 1.7–2.0 °C under the various RCP pathways, although the time of occurrence of the 1.5 °C target has a large spread of 40–60 years. Similarly, the models consistently show that the average SAT over China would most likely increase by 2.4–2.7 °C under the 2.0 °C target. Furthermore, the warming shows a clear spatial distinction over China: being stronger in the northwest part and weaker in the southeast part. Under all RCP pathways, the SAT over the northwest part would increase by 1.9–2.1 °C for the 1.5 °C target, which is much stronger than the SAT increase over the southeast part (1.3–1.5 °C). A similar spatial pattern appears for the 2.0 °C target. © 2017 National Climate Center (China Meteorological Administration) Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/108715
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China; National Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
Recommended Citation:
Fu Y.-H.,Lu R.-Y.,Guo D.. Changes in surface air temperature over China under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming targets[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2018-01-01,9(2)