DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.08.012
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85052280393
论文题名: Climate change effects on summertime precipitation organization in the Southeast United States
作者: Nieto Ferreira R. ; Nissenbaum M.R. ; Rickenbach T.M.
刊名: Atmospheric Research
ISSN: 1698095
出版年: 2018
卷: 214 起始页码: 348
结束页码: 363
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Precipitation organization
; Regional climate modeling
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Global warming
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Surface waters
; Weather forecasting
; Climate condition
; Feature identification
; Hydrological cycles
; Precipitation intensity
; Regional climate modeling
; Southeast United States
; Thermodynamic instability
; Weather research and forecasting models
; Climate models
; algorithm
; climate change
; climate modeling
; computer simulation
; future prospect
; hydrological cycle
; hydrological response
; numerical model
; precipitation intensity
; regional climate
; summer
; weather forecasting
; United States
英文摘要: As the earth warms, it is unclear how the organization of precipitation will change, or how these changes will impact regional rainfall and the hydrological cycle. This study combines Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations and the pseudo global warming downscaling approach with a precipitation feature identification algorithm to help improve our understanding of the effect of warming on precipitation organization. The WRF model was used to simulate precipitation during a six-day summer period in the southeastern United States under present and future warmer climate conditions. The domain averaged precipitation increased by 45% in the future climate simulation compared to current climate. Modeled precipitation features were classified into either mesoscale precipitation features (MPF) larger than 100 km in length or smaller isolated precipitation features (IPF). In terms of organization, future IPF precipitation fraction decreased while MPF precipitation fraction and feature sizes increased, especially over the ocean, indicating a general increase in mesoscale organization in the future warmer climate. Despite higher thermodynamic instability, future climate IPF precipitation was unchanged over land, possibly responding to stronger subsidence under a strengthened western ridge of the North Atlantic Subtropical High. Yet over the ocean IPF precipitation increased and the amplitude of the IPF diurnal cycle doubled. The most notable precipitation intensity increase, as measured by feature height and rainrate distributions, occurred in oceanic MPFs. These increases in oceanic IPF and MPF precipitation may highlight the role of surface water vapor fluxes in realizing increased precipitation in a warmer climate. This study demonstrates that the application of a simple precipitation feature identification algorithm to WRF simulations can give valuable insight into the effect of climate change upon precipitation organization and intensity. Nevertheless longer simulations are still needed to obtain a robust statistics of the changes of precipitation organization under a warming climate. © 2018 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/108756
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Geography, Planning, and Environment, East Carolina University, A-227 Brewster Bldg., Greenville, NC 27858-4353, United States; Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Talahassee, Florida, United States; Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Nieto Ferreira R.,Nissenbaum M.R.,Rickenbach T.M.. Climate change effects on summertime precipitation organization in the Southeast United States[J]. Atmospheric Research,2018-01-01,214