globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.06.021
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85049446150
论文题名:
Evaluation and analysis of temperature for historical (1996–2015) and projected (2030–2060) climates in Pakistan using SimCLIM climate model: Ensemble application
作者: Amin A.; Nasim W.; Fahad S.; Turan V.; Ali S.; Ahmad S.; Rasool A.; Saleem N.; Hammad H.M.; Sultana S.R.; Mubeen M.; Bakhat H.F.; Ahmad N.; Shah G.M.; Adnan M.; Noor M.; Basir A.; Saud S.; Habib ur Rahman M.; Paz J.O.
刊名: Atmospheric Research
ISSN: 1698095
出版年: 2018
卷: 213
起始页码: 422
结束页码: 436
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate model ; Climate trends ; Mann-Kendall ; Pakistan ; Representative concentration pathway
Scopus关键词: Agriculture ; Climate change ; Food supply ; Weather information services ; Climate trends ; General circulation model ; Mann-Kendall ; Maximum and minimum temperatures ; Pakistan ; Representative concentration pathway ; Statistical downscaling ; Sustainable agricultural ; Climate models ; air temperature ; alternative agriculture ; climate change ; climate modeling ; downscaling ; ensemble forecasting ; future prospect ; general circulation model ; historical perspective ; trend analysis ; weather forecasting ; Baluchistan ; Pakistan ; Pakistan
英文摘要: Climate change is a global issue that's affecting food security. An increase and decrease in temperature due to climate change is expected across many regions of the world. Analysis of 39 weather stations (Pakistan) trend for maximum and minimum temperatures was done on monthly, seasonal and annual observations. Two statistical tests (Sen's slope and Mann-Kendall) were applied to find out the slopes and magnitude of climate change trend. This statistical analysis was carried out to study the possible variations for maximum and minimum temperature trend. A statistical downscaling climate projection model (SimCLIM) was used to predict magnitude of maximum and minimum temperature for 2030 and 2060. Ensemble of 40 General Circulation Models (GCMs) was used with median Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP-6.0) for future projections in SimCLIM. This study showed more number of positive trends for maximum temperature over all the weather stations. Significantly positive temperature trend was observed in February and March for maximum temperature for all sites ranges from 0.06 to 0.51 °C. Mostly, statistically significant negative trend (−0.06 to −0.30 °C) was found in Balochistan province and northern areas of Pakistan. In future, minimum temperature projected by model showed negative trends for 60% of weather sites for December where, the negative trend also increased for monthly and seasonal analysis. Minimum temperature trend reveal that December has large number of sites with negative trends with high magnitude, which further decreased for annual followed by seasonal analysis. Minimum temperature projections showed similar trends with past December results but negative trends decreased for seasonal and annual resolution. Future projections also reveal that annual maximum and minimum temperature will be increased for 2060 as compared to 2030. These results may have significant effect on agriculture of northern and high mountain areas of Pakistan, which could be managed by sustainable agricultural activities. © 2018 Elsevier B.V.
Citation statistics:
被引频次[WOS]:33   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/108776
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia; Department of Environmental Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Vehari Campus61100, Pakistan; Department of Agriculture, University of Swabi, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Pakistan; College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, Hubei, China; Department of Soil Science and Plant Nutrition, Faculty of Agriculture, Bingöl University, Turkey; Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Ministry of Climate Change, Islamabad, Pakistan; Department of Agronomy, Bhauddin Zakerya University, Multan, Pakistan; State Key Laboratory of Environmental Geochemistry, Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guiyang, 550002, China; Department of Botany, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad (Subcampus Burewala), Vehari, Pakistan; College of Horticulture, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, China; Department of Agronomy, Muhammad Nawaz Shareef University of Agriculture, Multan, Pakistan; Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Mississippi State UniversityMS, United States

Recommended Citation:
Amin A.,Nasim W.,Fahad S.,et al. Evaluation and analysis of temperature for historical (1996–2015) and projected (2030–2060) climates in Pakistan using SimCLIM climate model: Ensemble application[J]. Atmospheric Research,2018-01-01,213
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Amin A.]'s Articles
[Nasim W.]'s Articles
[Fahad S.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Amin A.]'s Articles
[Nasim W.]'s Articles
[Fahad S.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Amin A.]‘s Articles
[Nasim W.]‘s Articles
[Fahad S.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.