DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.06.005
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85048992160
论文题名: Limits of precipitation nowcasting by extrapolation of radar reflectivity for warm season in Central Europe
作者: Mejsnar J. ; Sokol Z. ; Minářová J.
刊名: Atmospheric Research
ISSN: 1698095
出版年: 2018
卷: 213 起始页码: 288
结束页码: 301
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Extrapolation
; Radar
; Reflection
; Central Europe
; Czech Republic
; De correlations
; Meteorological condition
; Precipitation systems
; Radar reflectivities
; Reflectivity measurements
; Storm events
; Radar measurement
英文摘要: Current precipitation nowcasting systems primarily use the extrapolation of observed radar reflectivity. The study focuses on both the extrapolation and the limits of predictability of precipitation using the concept of decorrelation time (DCT). The DCT analysis is based on reflectivity measurements from two radars covering the Czech Republic during the warm season (May—September) of four years (2009—2012). The analysis shows that that the mean DCT for the extrapolation forecast is 45.4 min, whereas the DCT for the persistent forecast is 13.4 min shorter. However, the DCT may increase or decrease by >40% depending on current meteorological conditions. The investigation of the evolution of DCT in time during two storm events in the Czech Republic suggests that the DCT may significantly vary in time as a consequence of changing character of the precipitation systems. © 2018 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/108800
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Bocni II, 1401, 141 31, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Department of Atmospheric Physics, Charles University in Prague, V Holešovičkách, 2, 180 00, Prague, Czech Republic
Recommended Citation:
Mejsnar J.,Sokol Z.,Minářová J.. Limits of precipitation nowcasting by extrapolation of radar reflectivity for warm season in Central Europe[J]. Atmospheric Research,2018-01-01,213