globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.01.009
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85042262950
论文题名:
Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan
作者: Nasim W.; Amin A.; Fahad S.; Awais M.; Khan N.; Mubeen M.; Wahid A.; Turan V.; Rehman M.H.; Ihsan M.Z.; Ahmad S.; Hussain S.; Mian I.A.; Khan B.; Jamal Y.
刊名: Atmospheric Research
ISSN: 1698095
出版年: 2018
卷: 205
起始页码: 118
结束页码: 133
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Annual ; Climate change ; GCMs ; RCPs ; Risk ; Seasonal ; Simulation
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics ; Climate models ; Climatology ; Global warming ; Greenhouse gases ; Heating ; Risk assessment ; Risk perception ; Risks ; Annual ; GCMs ; RCPs ; Seasonal ; Simulation ; Climate change ; climate change ; climate modeling ; climate prediction ; general circulation model ; greenhouse gas ; heat wave ; risk assessment ; seasonal variation ; trend analysis ; Baluchistan ; Pakistan ; Punjab [Pakistan] ; Sind
英文摘要: Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997–2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997–2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study. © 2018 Elsevier B.V.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/108911
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Department of Environmental Sciences, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Vehari, 61100, Pakistan; CIHEAM-Institute Agronomique Mediterraneen de Montpellier (IAMM), Montpellier, 34090, France; CSIRO Ecosystems Sciences and Sustainable Agriculture Flagship, Toowoomba, QLD 4350, Australia; Department of Agriculture, The University of Swabi, Pakistan; College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, Hubei, China; Department of Agronomy, Islamia University Bahawalpur, Pakistan; University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States; Department of Environmental Sciences, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan; Department of Soil Science and Plant Nutrition, Division of Soil Microbiology, Bingöl University, Faculty of Agriculture, Bingöl, 12000, Turkey; Department of Agronomy, Muhammad Nawaz Shareef University of Agriculture, Multan, Pakistan; Cholestan Institute of Desert Studies, Islamia University Bahawalpur, Pakistan; Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan; Department of Soil and Environmental Sciences, The University of Agriculture, Peshawar, Pakistan; Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Peshawar, Pakistan

Recommended Citation:
Nasim W.,Amin A.,Fahad S.,et al. Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan[J]. Atmospheric Research,2018-01-01,205
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