globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.02.003
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85044356698
论文题名:
A lightning-based nowcast-warning approach for short-duration rainfall events: Development and testing over Beijing during the warm seasons of 2006–2007
作者: Wu F.; Cui X.; Zhang D.-L.
刊名: Atmospheric Research
ISSN: 1698095
出版年: 2018
卷: 205
起始页码: 2
结束页码: 17
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Beijing ; Lightning jump ; Nowcast-warning ; Short-duration rainfall ; Total lightning observation
Scopus关键词: Chemical detection ; Errors ; Lightning ; Lightning protection ; Rain ; Beijing ; Development and testing ; Lightning observations ; Metropolitan regions ; Nowcast ; Probability of detection ; Short duration rainfalls ; Total lightning ; Clouds ; algorithm ; atmospheric modeling ; lightning ; nowcasting ; observational method ; rainfall ; seasonality ; storm ; twenty first century ; warning system ; weather forecasting ; Beijing [China] ; China
英文摘要: Nowcasting short-duration (i.e., <6 h) rainfall (SDR) events is examined using total [i.e., cloud-to-ground (CG) and intra-cloud (IC)] lightning observations over the Beijing Metropolitan Region (BMR) during the warm seasons of 2006–2007. A total of 928 moderate and 554 intense SDR events, i.e., with the respective hourly rainfall rates (HRR) of 10–20 and ≥20 mm h−1, are utilized to estimate sharp-increasing rates in rainfall and lightning flash, termed as rainfall and lightning jumps, respectively. By optimizing the parameters in a lightning jump and a rainfall jump algorithm, their different jump intensity grades are verified for the above two categories of SDR events. Then, their corresponding graded nowcast-warning models are developed for the moderate and intense SDR events, respectively, with a low-grade warning for hitting more SDR events and a high-grade warning for reducing false alarms. Any issued warning in the nowcast-warning models is designed to last for 2 h after the occurrence of a lightning jump. It is demonstrated that the low-grade warnings can have the probability of detection (POD) of 67.8% (87.0%) and the high-grade warnings have the false alarms ratio (FAR) of 27.0% (22.2%) for the moderate (intense) SDR events, with an averaged lead time of 36.7 (52.0) min. The nowcast-warning models are further validated using three typical heavy-rain-producing storms that are independent from those used to develop the models. Results show that the nowcast-warning models can provide encouraging early warnings for the associated SDR events from the regional to meso-γ scales, indicating that they have a great potential in being applied to the other regions where high-resolution total lightning observations are available. © 2018 The Authors
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/108920
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms (LACS), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China; Key State Laboratory for Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States

Recommended Citation:
Wu F.,Cui X.,Zhang D.-L.. A lightning-based nowcast-warning approach for short-duration rainfall events: Development and testing over Beijing during the warm seasons of 2006–2007[J]. Atmospheric Research,2018-01-01,205
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