DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.02.006
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85044369897
论文题名: Contributions of natural climate changes and human activities to the trend of extreme precipitation
作者: Gao L. ; Huang J. ; Chen X. ; Chen Y. ; Liu M.
刊名: Atmospheric Research
ISSN: 1698095
出版年: 2018
卷: 205 起始页码: 60
结束页码: 69
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Human activity
; Nonstationarity
; Precipitation
; Risk
; Trend
Scopus关键词: Economic and social effects
; Greenhouse gases
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Risks
; Value engineering
; Extreme precipitation events
; Generalized additive model
; Human activities
; Large-scale circulation
; Meteorological station
; Non-stationarities
; Socio-economic development
; Trend
; Climate change
英文摘要: This study focuses on the analysis of the nonstationarity characteristics of extreme precipitation and their attributions in the southeastern coastal region of China. The maximum daily precipitation (MDP) series is extracted from observations at 79 meteorological stations in the study area during the first flood season (April–June) from 1960 to 2012. The trends of the mean (Mn) and variance (Var) of MDP are detected using the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape parameters (GAMLSS) and Mann-Kendall test. The contributions of natural climate change and human activities to the Mn and Var changes of MDP are investigated using six large-scale circulation variables and emissions of four greenhouse gases based on GAMLSS and a contribution analysis method. The results demonstrate that the nonstationarity of extreme precipitation on local scales is significant. The Mn and Var of extreme precipitation increase in the north of Zhejiang, the middle of Fujian, and the south of Guangdong. In general, natural climate change contributes more to Mn from 1960 to 2012 than to Var. However, human activities cause a greater Var in the rapid socioeconomic development period (1986–2012) than in the slow socioeconomic development period (1960–1985), especially in Zhejiang and Guangdong. The community should pay more attention to the possibility of extreme precipitation events and associated disasters triggered by human activities. © 2018 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/108921
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute of Geography, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, China; College of Geographical Science, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, China; Fujian Provincial Engineering Research Center for Monitoring and Assessing Terrestrial Disasters, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, China; State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Mountain Ecology (Funded by Ministry of Science and Technology and Fujian Province), Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, China
Recommended Citation:
Gao L.,Huang J.,Chen X.,et al. Contributions of natural climate changes and human activities to the trend of extreme precipitation[J]. Atmospheric Research,2018-01-01,205