DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-4060-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85041566845
论文题名: Variability and predictability of decadal mean temperature and precipitation over China in the CCSM4 last millennium simulation
作者: Ying K. ; Frederiksen C.S. ; Zheng X. ; Lou J. ; Zhao T.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 51, 期: 2018-07-08 起始页码: 2989
结束页码: 3008
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Decadal variability
; Potential decadal predictability
; Predictable decadal signal
; Unpredictable decadal mode
英文摘要: The modes of variability that arise from the slow-decadal (potentially predictable) and intra-decadal (unpredictable) components of decadal mean temperature and precipitation over China are examined, in a 1000 year (850–1850 AD) experiment using the CCSM4 model. Solar variations, volcanic aerosols, orbital forcing, land use, and greenhouse gas concentrations provide the main forcing and boundary conditions. The analysis is done using a decadal variance decomposition method that identifies sources of potential decadal predictability and uncertainty. The average potential decadal predictabilities (ratio of slow-to-total decadal variance) are 0.62 and 0.37 for the temperature and rainfall over China, respectively, indicating that the (multi-)decadal variations of temperature are dominated by slow-decadal variability, while precipitation is dominated by unpredictable decadal noise. Possible sources of decadal predictability for the two leading predictable modes of temperature are the external radiative forcing, and the combined effects of slow-decadal variability of the Arctic oscillation (AO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), respectively. Combined AO and PDO slow-decadal variability is associated also with the leading predictable mode of precipitation. External radiative forcing as well as the slow-decadal variability of PDO are associated with the second predictable rainfall mode; the slow-decadal variability of Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) is associated with the third predictable precipitation mode. The dominant unpredictable decadal modes are associated with intra-decadal/inter-annual phenomena. In particular, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the intra-decadal variability of the AMO, PDO and AO are the most important sources of prediction uncertainty. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109072
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; The Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; The School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia; Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Australian Research Council, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Ying K.,Frederiksen C.S.,Zheng X.,et al. Variability and predictability of decadal mean temperature and precipitation over China in the CCSM4 last millennium simulation[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,51(2018-07-08)