DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-4056-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85039843842
论文题名: Regional climate of the Subtropical Central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models. Part II: future projections for the twenty-first century
作者: Zazulie N. ; Rusticucci M. ; Raga G.B.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 51, 期: 2018-07-08 起始页码: 2913
结束页码: 2925
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5 models
; Elevation-dependent warming
; Future projections
; Model evaluation
; Subtropical Central Andes
Scopus关键词: albedo
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; CMIP
; global climate
; regional climate
; snowpack
; twenty first century
; warming
; Andes
; Argentina
; Chile
英文摘要: In Part I of our study (Zazulie et al. Clim Dyn, 2017, hereafter Z17) we analyzed the ability of a subset of fifteen high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 to reproduce the past climate of the Subtropical Central Andes (SCA) of Argentina and Chile. A subset of only five GCMs was shown to reproduce well the past climate (1980–2005), for austral summer and winter. In this study we analyze future climate projections for the twenty-first century over this complex orography region using those five GCMs. We evaluate the projections under two of the representative concentration pathways considered as future scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Future projections indicate warming during the twenty-first century over the SCA region, especially pronounced over the mountains. Projections of warming at high elevations in the SCA depend on altitude, and are larger than the projected global mean warming. This phenomenon is expected to strengthen by the end of the century under the high-emission scenario. Increases in winter temperatures of up to 2.5 °C, relative to 1980–2005, are projected by 2040–2065, while a 5 °C warming is expected at the highest elevations by 2075–2100. Such a large monthly-mean warming during winter would most likely result in snowpack melting by late winter-early spring, with serious implication for water availability during summer, when precipitation is a minimum over the mountains. We also explore changes in the albedo, as a contributing factor affecting the net flux of energy at the surface and found a reduction in albedo of 20–60% at high elevations, related to the elevation dependent warming. Furthermore, a decrease in winter precipitation is projected in central Chile by the end of the century, independent of the scenario considered. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109084
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, FCEN, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina; Unidad Mixta Internacional – Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos (UMI-IFAECI), Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
Recommended Citation:
Zazulie N.,Rusticucci M.,Raga G.B.. Regional climate of the Subtropical Central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models. Part II: future projections for the twenty-first century[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,51(2018-07-08)