DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-4023-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85035806019
论文题名: Changes of tropical cyclone landfalls in South China throughout the twenty-first century
作者: Lok C.C.F. ; Chan J.C.L.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 51, 期: 2018-07-08 起始页码: 2467
结束页码: 2483
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate projection
; Downscaling
; East Asia
; Regional climate model
; Tropical cyclone intensity
; Tropical cyclone landfall
; WRF
Scopus关键词: climate modeling
; climate prediction
; downscaling
; precipitation intensity
; tropical cyclone
; twenty first century
; China
英文摘要: The nested regional climate/mesoscale modelling system developed by the authors is applied to the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System global model outputs to project future changes of landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the South China region. Results show that the modelling system is capable of reproducing the current TC landfall climatology, although it exhibits a noticeable southward bias of TC activity of in the western North Pacific. Future projections show a continuous northward migration of TC activity in the western North Pacific throughout the twenty-first century. Fewer TCs making landfall in South China are projected in the late century, but these landfalling TCs tend to be more intense. Investigations in the large-scale environment suggest that despite warmer sea surface temperature and weaker vertical wind shear, the drier and less cyclonic lower atmosphere all-season is responsible for the reduced TC activity. However, once a TC is formed, the environment it stays in is as wet as today and so it can intensify further than the present-day TCs. Inter-annual variability is also explored, and the influence of the ENSO variation appears to be smaller. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109106
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, 83 Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong
Recommended Citation:
Lok C.C.F.,Chan J.C.L.. Changes of tropical cyclone landfalls in South China throughout the twenty-first century[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,51(2018-07-08)