DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3986-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85033475490
论文题名: Role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in modulating the climate response to a Pinatubo-like volcanic eruption
作者: Ménégoz M. ; Cassou C. ; Swingedouw D. ; Ruprich-Robert Y. ; Bretonnière P.-A. ; Doblas-Reyes F.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 51, 期: 2018-05-06 起始页码: 1863
结束页码: 1883
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atlantic multidecadal variability
; Climate dynamics
; Climate model
; Ensemble size
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; Volcanic eruptions
Scopus关键词: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; Hadley cell
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; volcanic eruption
; westerly
英文摘要: The modulation by the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) of the dynamical climate response to a Pinatubo-like eruption is investigated for the boreal winter season based on a suite of large ensemble experiments using the CNRM-CM5 Coupled Global Circulation Model. The volcanic eruption induces a strong reduction and retraction of the Hadley cell during 2 years following the eruption and independently of the phase of the AMV. The mean extratropical westerly circulation simultaneously weakens throughout the entire atmospheric column, except at polar Northern latitudes where the zonal circulation is slightly strengthened. Yet, there are no significant changes in the modes of variability of the surface atmospheric circulation, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in the first and the second winters after the eruption. Significant modifications over the North Atlantic sector are only found during the third winter. Using clustering techniques, we decompose the atmospheric circulation into weather regimes and provide evidence for inhibition of the occurrence of negative NAO-type circulation in response to volcanic forcing. This forced signal is amplified in cold AMV conditions and is related to sea ice/atmosphere feedbacks in the Arctic and to tropical-extratropical teleconnections. Finally, we demonstrate that large ensembles of simulations are required to make volcanic fingerprints emerge from climate noise at mid-latitudes. Using small size ensemble could easily lead to misleading conclusions especially those related to the extratropical dynamics, and specifically the NAO. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109116
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Edifici Nexus II, C/Jordi Girona, 31, Barcelona, 08034, Spain; CECI, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, Cerfacs, Toulouse, France; UMR CNRS 5805 EPOC-OASU-Université de Bordeaux, Allée Geoffroy Saint Hilaire, Pessac, 33615, France; ICREA, Pg. Lluís Companys 23, Barcelona, 08010, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Ménégoz M.,Cassou C.,Swingedouw D.,et al. Role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in modulating the climate response to a Pinatubo-like volcanic eruption[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,51(2018-05-06)