DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3982-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85032821522
论文题名: High-resolution boreal winter precipitation projections over tropical America from CMIP5 models
作者: Palomino-Lemus R. ; Córdoba-Machado S. ; Gámiz-Fortis S.R. ; Castro-Díez Y. ; Esteban-Parra M.J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 51, 期: 2018-05-06 起始页码: 1773
结束页码: 1792
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Boreal winter precipitation
; Climate projections
; CMIP5 GCMs
; Statistical downscaling
; Tropical America
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; downscaling
; ensemble forecasting
; precipitation (climatology)
; radiative forcing
; statistical analysis
; tropical region
; winter
; Brazil
; Chile
; Colombia
; Mexico [North America]
英文摘要: Climate-change projections for boreal winter precipitation in Tropical America has been addressed by statistical downscaling (SD) using the principal component regression with sea-level pressure (SLP) as the predictor variable. The SD model developed from the reanalysis of SLP and gridded precipitation GPCC data, has been applied to SLP outputs from 20 CGMS of CMIP5, both from the present climate (1971–2000) and for the future (2071–2100) under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The SD model shows a suitable performance over large regions, presenting a strong bias only in small areas characterized by very dry climate conditions or poor data coverage. The difference in percentage between the projected SD precipitation and the simulated SD precipitation for present climate, ranges from moderate to intense changes in rainfall (positive or negative, depending on the region and the SD GCM model considered), as the radiative forcing increases from the RCP2.6 to RCP8.5. The disparity in the GCMs outputs seems to be the major source of uncertainty in the projected changes, while the scenario considered appears less decisive. Mexico and eastern Brazil are the areas showing the most coherent decreases between SD GCMs, while northwestern and southeastern South America show consistently significant increases. This coherence is corroborated by the results of the ensemble mean which projects positive changes from 10°N towards the south, with exceptions such as eastern Brazil, northern Chile and some smaller areas, such as the center of Colombia, while projected negative changes are the majority found in the northernmost part. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109127
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Applied Physics, Facultad de Ciencias, University of Granada, Campus Fuentenueva s/n, Granada, 18071, Spain; Technological University of Chocó, Quibdó, Colombia
Recommended Citation:
Palomino-Lemus R.,Córdoba-Machado S.,Gámiz-Fortis S.R.,et al. High-resolution boreal winter precipitation projections over tropical America from CMIP5 models[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,51(2018-05-06)