DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-4018-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85034626053
论文题名: Role of resolution in regional climate change projections over China
作者: Shi Y. ; Wang G. ; Gao X.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 51, 期: 2018-05-06 起始页码: 2375
结束页码: 2396
语种: 英语
英文关键词: China
; Climate change
; Horizontal resolution
; Regional climate model
Scopus关键词: climate change
; computer simulation
; data set
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; spatial distribution
; spatial resolution
英文摘要: This paper investigates the sensitivity of projected future climate changes over China to the horizontal resolution of a regional climate model RegCM4.4 (RegCM), using RCP8.5 as an example. Model validation shows that RegCM performs better in reproducing the spatial distribution and magnitude of present-day temperature, precipitation and climate extremes than the driving global climate model HadGEM2-ES (HadGEM, at 1.875° × 1.25° degree resolution), but little difference is found between the simulations at 50 and 25 km resolutions. Comparison with observational data at different resolutions confirmed the added value of the RCM and finer model resolutions in better capturing the probability distribution of precipitation. However, HadGEM and RegCM at both resolutions project a similar pattern of significant future warming during both winter and summer, and a similar pattern of winter precipitation changes including dominant increase in most areas of northern China and little change or decrease in the southern part. Projected precipitation changes in summer diverge among the three models, especially over eastern China, with a general increase in HadGEM, little change in RegCM at 50 km, and a mix of increase and decrease in RegCM at 25 km resolution. Changes of temperature-related extremes (annual total number of daily maximum temperature > 25 °C, the maximum value of daily maximum temperature, the minimum value of daily minimum temperature in the three simulations especially in the two RegCM simulations are very similar to each other; so are the precipitation-related extremes (maximum consecutive dry days, maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation and extremely wet days’ total amount). Overall, results from this study indicate a very low sensitivity of projected changes in this region to model resolution. While fine resolution is critical for capturing the spatial variability of the control climate, it may not be as important for capturing the climate response to homogeneous forcing (in this case greenhouse gas concentration changes). © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109139
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Center for Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, United States; Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
Recommended Citation:
Shi Y.,Wang G.,Gao X.. Role of resolution in regional climate change projections over China[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,51(2018-05-06)