DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3973-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85032814692
论文题名: Prediction of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific and its connection to ENSO in the North American multi-model ensemble (NMME)
作者: Zhou Y. ; Kim H.-M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 51, 期: 2018-05-06 起始页码: 1623
结束页码: 1637
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: atmospheric circulation
; atmospheric moisture
; climate prediction
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; ensemble forecasting
; hindcasting
; moisture flux
; sea surface temperature
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: Prediction skills of the wintertime atmospheric rivers (ARs) and moisture flux over the Northeast Pacific in response to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing are evaluated from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) hindcasts (CFSv2, CCSM4, CanCM3, CanCM4, GEOS5, and GFDL CM2.1). The skill is estimated for the active AR season, December–February (DJF) with initial conditions around early November. Models underestimate the climatological moisture flux to different extents corresponding with various climatological biases in predictions of sea surface temperature (SST) and large-scale atmospheric circulation fields. The anomalous moisture flux and AR frequency over the Northeast Pacific are predicted in the models but in weaker amplitude than the reanalysis. Significant regional biases are shown in the anomalous landfalling AR frequency corresponding with ENSO, underlining the challenge in regional precipitation forecasts. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109148
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-5000, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zhou Y.,Kim H.-M.. Prediction of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific and its connection to ENSO in the North American multi-model ensemble (NMME)[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,51(2018-05-06)