globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3083-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84961665219
论文题名:
Scaling precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean: past climate assessment and projection in anthropogenic scenarios
作者: Drobinski P.; Silva N.D.; Panthou G.; Bastin S.; Muller C.; Ahrens B.; Borga M.; Conte D.; Fosser G.; Giorgi F.; Güttler I.; Kotroni V.; Li L.; Morin E.; Önol B.; Quintana-Segui P.; Romera R.; Torma C.Z.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 51, 期:3
起始页码: 1237
结束页码: 1257
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Clausius–Clapeyron scaling ; Europe ; HyMeX ; MED-CORDEX ; Mediterranean ; Precipitation extremes ; Regional climate
Scopus关键词: anthropogenic effect ; computer simulation ; extreme event ; numerical model ; precipitation assessment ; regional climate ; Mediterranean Sea
英文摘要: In this study we investigate the scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean region by assessing against observations the present day and future regional climate simulations performed in the frame of the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX programs. Over the 1979–2008 period, despite differences in quantitative precipitation simulation across the various models, the change in precipitation extremes with respect to temperature is robust and consistent. The spatial variability of the temperature–precipitation extremes relationship displays a hook shape across the Mediterranean, with negative slope at high temperatures and a slope following Clausius–Clapeyron (CC)-scaling at low temperatures. The temperature at which the slope of the temperature–precipitation extreme relation sharply changes (or temperature break), ranges from about 20 °C in the western Mediterranean to <10 °C in Greece. In addition, this slope is always negative in the arid regions of the Mediterranean. The scaling of the simulated precipitation extremes is insensitive to ocean–atmosphere coupling, while it depends very weakly on the resolution at high temperatures for short precipitation accumulation times. In future climate scenario simulations covering the 2070–2100 period, the temperature break shifts to higher temperatures by a value which is on average the mean regional temperature change due to global warming. The slope of the simulated future temperature–precipitation extremes relationship is close to CC-scaling at temperatures below the temperature break, while at high temperatures, the negative slope is close, but somewhat flatter or steeper, than in the current climate depending on the model. Overall, models predict more intense precipitation extremes in the future. Adjusting the temperature–precipitation extremes relationship in the present climate using the CC law and the temperature shift in the future allows the recovery of the temperature–precipitation extremes relationship in the future climate. This implies negligible regional changes of relative humidity in the future despite the large warming and drying over the Mediterranean. This suggests that the Mediterranean Sea is the primary source of moisture which counteracts the drying and warming impacts on relative humidity in parts of the Mediterranean region. © 2016, The Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109181
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: LMD/IPSL, CNRS and École Polytechnique, Université Paris-Saclay, Palaiseau, France; LSCE/IPSL, CNRS and CEA, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif sur Yvette, France; LATMOS/IPSL, UVSQ, UPMC Univ. Paris 06, CNRS/INSU, Université Paris-Saclay, Sorbonne Universités, Guyancourt, France; LadHyX, CNRS and Ecole Polytechnique, Université Paris-Saclay, Palaiseau, France; Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe-University Frankfurt, Frankfurt, Germany; Department of Land and Agroforest Environments, University of Padova, Legnaro, Italy; CMCC, Lecce, Italy; Météo-France/CNRM, CNRS/GAME, Toulouse, France; Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy; Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia (DHMZ), Zagreb, Croatia; Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece; LMD/IPSL, CNRS and UPMC Univ Paris 06, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France; Geography Department, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mt. Scopus, Jerusalem, Israel; Department of Meteorology, Aeronautics and Astronautics Faculty, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey; Observatori de l’Ebre, Universitat Ramon LLull - CSIC, Roquetes, Tarragona, Spain; Environmental Sciences Institute, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain

Recommended Citation:
Drobinski P.,Silva N.D.,Panthou G.,et al. Scaling precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean: past climate assessment and projection in anthropogenic scenarios[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,51(3)
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