DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3921-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85029573736
论文题名: The interplay of internal and forced modes of Hadley Cell expansion: lessons from the global warming hiatus
作者: Amaya D.J. ; Siler N. ; Xie S.-P. ; Miller A.J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 51, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 305
结束页码: 319
语种: 英语
英文关键词: El Niño Southern Oscillation
; Global climate model
; Global warming hiatus
; Hadley Cell expansion
; Internal variability
; Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Scopus关键词: climate modeling
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; global climate
; global warming
; Hadley cell
; hiatus
; long-term change
; Pacific Decadal Oscillation
; radiative forcing
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: The poleward branches of the Hadley Cells and the edge of the tropics show a robust poleward shift during the satellite era, leading to concerns over the possible encroachment of the globe’s subtropical dry zones into currently temperate climates. The extent to which this trend is caused by anthropogenic forcing versus internal variability remains the subject of considerable debate. In this study, we use a Joint EOF method to identify two distinct modes of tropical width variability: (1) an anthropogenically-forced mode, which we identify using a 20-member simulation of the historical climate, and (2) an internal mode, which we identify using a 1000-year pre-industrial control simulation. The forced mode is found to be closely related to the top of the atmosphere radiative imbalance and exhibits a long-term trend since 1860, while the internal mode is essentially indistinguishable from the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Together these two modes explain an average of 70% of the interannual variability seen in model “edge indices” over the historical period. Since 1980, the superposition of forced and internal modes has resulted in a period of accelerated Hadley Cell expansion and decelerated global warming (i.e., the “hiatus”). A comparison of the change in these modes since 1980 indicates that by 2013 the signal has emerged above the noise of internal variability in the Southern Hemisphere, but not in the Northern Hemisphere, with the latter also exhibiting strong zonal asymmetry, particularly in the North Atlantic. Our results highlight the important interplay of internal and forced modes of tropical width change and improve our understanding of the interannual variability and long-term trend seen in observations. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109209
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California-San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive #0206, La Jolla, CA 92093-0206, United States
Recommended Citation:
Amaya D.J.,Siler N.,Xie S.-P.,et al. The interplay of internal and forced modes of Hadley Cell expansion: lessons from the global warming hiatus[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,51(2018-01-02)