DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3919-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85030104166
论文题名: An improved simulation of the 2015 El Niño event by optimally correcting the initial conditions and model parameters in an intermediate coupled model
作者: Zhang R.-H. ; Tao L.-J. ; Gao C.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 51, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 269
结束页码: 282
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ICM
; Optimal bias corrections to ICs and MPs
; The 2015 El Niño event
; The CNOP-based approach
Scopus关键词: computer simulation
; data assimilation
; El Nino
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; error analysis
; thermocline
英文摘要: Large uncertainties exist in real-time predictions of the 2015 El Niño event, which have systematic intensity biases that are strongly model-dependent. It is critically important to characterize those model biases so they can be reduced appropriately. In this study, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP)-based approach was applied to an intermediate coupled model (ICM) equipped with a four-dimensional variational data assimilation technique. The CNOP-based approach was used to quantify prediction errors that can be attributed to initial conditions (ICs) and model parameters (MPs). Two key MPs were considered in the ICM: one represents the intensity of the thermocline effect, and the other represents the relative coupling intensity between the ocean and atmosphere. Two experiments were performed to illustrate the effects of error corrections, one with a standard simulation and another with an optimized simulation in which errors in the ICs and MPs derived from the CNOP-based approach were optimally corrected. The results indicate that simulations of the 2015 El Niño event can be effectively improved by using CNOP-derived error correcting. In particular, the El Niño intensity in late 2015 was adequately captured when simulations were started from early 2015. Quantitatively, the Niño3.4 SST index simulated in Dec. 2015 increased to 2.8 °C in the optimized simulation, compared with only 1.5 °C in the standard simulation. The feasibility and effectiveness of using the CNOP-based technique to improve ENSO simulations are demonstrated in the context of the 2015 El Niño event. The limitations and further applications are also discussed. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109235
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, 266071, China; Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266237, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 10029, China
Recommended Citation:
Zhang R.-H.,Tao L.-J.,Gao C.. An improved simulation of the 2015 El Niño event by optimally correcting the initial conditions and model parameters in an intermediate coupled model[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,51(2018-01-02)