DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3878-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85028606652
论文题名: Covariability of Central America/Mexico winter precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures
作者: Pan Y. ; Zeng N. ; Mariotti A. ; Wang H. ; Kumar A. ; Sánchez R.L. ; Jha B.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-11-12 起始页码: 4335
结束页码: 4346
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Central America
; Mexico
; Precipitation
; Sea surface temperature
Scopus关键词: air-sea interaction
; atmospheric circulation
; atmospheric modeling
; El Nino
; La Nina
; precipitation (climatology)
; sea surface temperature
; winter
; Atlantic Ocean
; Central America
; Indian Ocean
; Indian Ocean (Tropical)
; Mexico [North America]
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
英文摘要: In this study, the relationships between Central America/Mexico (CAM) winter precipitation and tropical Pacific/Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are examined based on 68-year (1948–2015) observations and 59-year (1957–2015) atmospheric model simulations forced by observed SSTs. The covariability of the winter precipitation and SSTs is quantified using the singular value decomposition (SVD) method with observational data. The first SVD mode relates out-of-phase precipitation anomalies in northern Mexico and Central America to the tropical Pacific El Niño/La Niña SST variation. The second mode links a decreasing trend in the precipitation over Central America to the warming of SSTs in the tropical Atlantic, as well as in the tropical western Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean. The first mode represents 67% of the covariance between the two fields, indicating a strong association between CAM winter precipitation and El Niño/La Niña, whereas the second mode represents 20% of the covariance. The two modes account for 32% of CAM winter precipitation variance, of which, 17% is related to the El Niño/La Niña SST and 15% is related to the SST warming trend. The atmospheric circulation patterns, including 500-hPa height and low-level winds obtained by linear regressions against the SVD SST time series, are dynamically consistent with the precipitation anomaly patterns. The model simulations driven by the observed SSTs suggest that these precipitation anomalies are likely a response to tropical SST forcing. It is also shown that there is significant potential predictability of CAM winter precipitation given tropical SST information. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109263
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States; NOAA/OAR/Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, MD, United States; NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States; The Mexican Institute of Water Technology, Jiutepec, Morelos, Mexico; Innovim, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Pan Y.,Zeng N.,Mariotti A.,et al. Covariability of Central America/Mexico winter precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-11-12)