DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3874-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85028753337
论文题名: Seasonal dependence of the predictable low-level circulation patterns over the tropical Indo-Pacific domain
作者: Zhang T. ; Huang B. ; Yang S. ; Laohalertchai C.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-11-12 起始页码: 4263
结束页码: 4284
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Most predictable patterns
; NCEP CFSv2 hindcasts
; Seasonal dependence
Scopus关键词: atmospheric circulation
; climate prediction
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; empirical orthogonal function analysis
; hindcasting
; Indian Ocean Dipole
; seasonal variation
; zonal wind
; Indian Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: The seasonal dependence of the prediction skill of 850-hPa monthly zonal wind over the tropical Indo-Pacific domain is examined using the ensemble reforecasts for 1983–2010 from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) project. According to a maximum signal-to-noise empirical orthogonal function analysis, the most predictable patterns of atmospheric low-level circulation are associated with the developing and maturing phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The CFSv2 is capable of predicting these ENSO-related patterns up to 9-months in advance for all months, except for May–June when the effect of the spring barrier is strong. The other predictable climate processes associated with the low-level atmospheric circulation are more seasonally dependent. For winter and spring, the second most predictable patterns are associated with the ENSO decaying phase. Within these seasons, the monthly evolution of the predictable patterns is characterized by a southward shift of westerly wind anomalies, generated by the interaction between the annual cycle and the ENSO signals (i.e., the combination-mode). In general, the CFSv2 hindcast well predicts these patterns at least 5 months in advance for spring, while shows much lower skills for winter months. In summer, the second predictable patterns are associated with the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon (i.e., the WNP anticyclone/cyclone) in short leads while associated with ENSO in longer leads (after 4-month lead). The second predictable patterns in fall are mainly associated with tropical Indian Ocean Dipole, which can be predicted 3 months in advance. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109271
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, 135 West Xingang Road, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510275, China; Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences and Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China; Institute of Earth Climate and Environment System, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China; Thai Meteorological Department, Bangna, Bangkok, Thailand
Recommended Citation:
Zhang T.,Huang B.,Yang S.,et al. Seasonal dependence of the predictable low-level circulation patterns over the tropical Indo-Pacific domain[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-11-12)