DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3853-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027695830
论文题名: Reconstructing East African rainfall and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures over the last centuries using data assimilation
作者: Klein F. ; Goosse H.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-11-12 起始页码: 3909
结束页码: 3929
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Data assimilation
; East Africa
; Indian Ocean
; Model-data comparison
Scopus关键词: climate modeling
; data assimilation
; numerical model
; rainfall
; sea surface temperature
; East African Lakes
; Indian Ocean
; Kenya
; Kilimanjaro [Tanzania]
; Lake Challa
; Lake Malawi
; Lake Masoko
; Lake Naivasha
; Mbeya [Tanzania]
; Nakuru
; Tanzania
英文摘要: The relationship between the East African rainfall and Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) is well established. The potential interest of this covariance to improve reconstructions of both variables over the last centuries is examined here. This is achieved through an off-line method of data assimilation based on a particle filter, using hydroclimate-related records at four East African sites (Lake Naivasha, Lake Challa, Lake Malawi and Lake Masoko) and SSTs-related records at six oceanic sites spread over the Indian Ocean to constrain the Last Millennium Ensemble of simulations performed by CESM1. Skillful reconstructions of the Indian SSTs and East African rainfall can be obtained based on the assimilation of only one of these variables, when assimilating pseudo-proxy data deduced from the model CESM1. The skill of these reconstructions increases with the number of particles selected in the particle filter, although the improvement becomes modest beyond 99 particles. When considering a more realistic framework, the skill of the reconstructions is strongly deteriorated because of the model biases and the uncertainties of the real proxy-based reconstructions. However, it is still possible to obtain a skillful reconstruction of SSTs over most of the Indian Ocean only based on the assimilation of the six SST-related proxy records selected, as far as a local calibration is applied at all individual sites. This underlines once more the critical role of an adequate integration of the signal inferred from proxy records into the climate models for reconstructions based on data assimilation. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109272
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute (ELI), Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), Place Louis Pasteur, 3, Louvain-La-Neuve, 1348, Belgium
Recommended Citation:
Klein F.,Goosse H.. Reconstructing East African rainfall and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures over the last centuries using data assimilation[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-11-12)