globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3859-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027986752
论文题名:
Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability
作者: Zheng X.-T.; Hui C.; Yeh S.-W.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期:2018-11-12
起始页码: 4019
结束页码: 4035
语种: 英语
英文摘要: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of ~15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109278
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China; Key Laboratory of Ocean–Atmosphere Interaction and Climate in Universities of Shandong, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China; Department of Marine Sciences and Convergent Technology, Hanyang University, Ansan, South Korea; College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China

Recommended Citation:
Zheng X.-T.,Hui C.,Yeh S.-W.. Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-11-12)
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