DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3901-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85029521441
论文题名: Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?
作者: Aalbers E.E. ; Lenderink G. ; van Meijgaard E. ; van den Hurk B.J.J.M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-11-12 起始页码: 4745
结束页码: 4766
语种: 英语
英文关键词: EURO-CORDEX
; Initial-condition RCM–GCM ensemble
; Internal variability
; Precipitation extremes
; Regional climate change
; Signal-to-noise
Scopus关键词: atmospheric general circulation model
; climate change
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; extreme event
; global warming
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; signal-to-noise ratio
; variance analysis
; Alps
; Western Europe
英文摘要: High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—‘noise’, intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM–GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109280
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), PO Box 201, De Bilt, 3730 AE, Netherlands; Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, 1081 HV, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Aalbers E.E.,Lenderink G.,van Meijgaard E.,et al. Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-11-12)