DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3847-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027301443
论文题名: Uncertainties and time of emergence of multi-model precipitation projection over homogeneous rainfall zones of India
作者: Akhter J. ; Das L. ; Meher J.K. ; Deb A.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-09-10 起始页码: 3813
结束页码: 3831
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bias correction
; Homogeneous zones
; Multi-model projection
; Precipitation
; Time of emergence
; Uncertainty
; Weighting
Scopus关键词: climate modeling
; error correction
; performance assessment
; precipitation (climatology)
; rainfall
; sampling bias
; time series
; uncertainty analysis
; weather forecasting
; India
英文摘要: Present study has assessed different sources of uncertainties in multi-model precipitation projection using Global Climate Models (GCMs) from coupled model inter-comparison project phase five (CMIP5) experiment over seven homogeneous rainfall zones of India namely North Mountainous India (NMI), Northwest India (NWI), North Central India (NCI), Northeast India (NEI), West Peninsular India (WPI), East Peninsular India (EPI), and South Peninsular India (SPI). A relatively new method has been employed to separate out internal variability and climate change signal from precipitation time series before quantifying the uncertainties. In our method, signal has been defined as dynamic trend instead of considering a fixed trend line. Three different types of weighting namely equal weighting, independence based weighting and performance based weighting have been employed to assess the uncertainties of GCM projection over different zones. It has been found that ensemble with performance based weighting has produced smaller inter-model uncertainty but the patterns of temporal evolution of uncertainties have been quite irregular compared to other two ensembles. On the other hand, it has been noticed that bias correction using quantile mapping can effectively reduce the range of uncertainty in a systematic way. It has been observed that inter-model uncertainties over NEI has been relatively lower compared to other zones indicating more robust projection over this zone. A dynamic threshold on signal-to-internal variability ratio (S/I) has been used for estimating time of emergence (TOE) at 95% confidence level over each zone. TOE would be earlier in case of NEI and late in NMI. However no zone may experience TOE in first half of the present century. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109318
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Physics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, 700032, India; Department of Agricultural Meteorology and Physics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Mohanpur, West Bengal 741252, India
Recommended Citation:
Akhter J.,Das L.,Meher J.K.,et al. Uncertainties and time of emergence of multi-model precipitation projection over homogeneous rainfall zones of India[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-09-10)