DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3597-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85015258706
论文题名: Assessment of the performance of CORDEX-SA experiments in simulating seasonal mean temperature over the Himalayan region for the present climate: Part I
作者: Nengker T. ; Choudhary A. ; Dimri A.P.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-07-08 起始页码: 2411
结束页码: 2441
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climatology
; Cold bias
; CORDEX-SA
; Elevation
; Himalayan region
; RCMs
; Seasonal
; Temperature
英文摘要: The ability of an ensemble of five regional climate models (hereafter RCMs) under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments-South Asia (hereafter, CORDEX-SA) in simulating the key features of present day near surface mean air temperature (Tmean) climatology (1970–2005) over the Himalayan region is studied. The purpose of this paper is to understand the consistency in the performance of models across the ensemble, space and seasons. For this a number of statistical measures like trend, correlation, variance, probability distribution function etc. are applied to evaluate the performance of models against observation and simultaneously the underlying uncertainties between them for four different seasons. The most evident finding from the study is the presence of a large cold bias (−6 to −8 °C) which is systematically seen across all the models and across space and time over the Himalayan region. However, these RCMs with its fine resolution perform extremely well in capturing the spatial distribution of the temperature features as indicated by a consistently high spatial correlation (greater than 0.9) with the observation in all seasons. In spite of underestimation in simulated temperature and general intensification of cold bias with increasing elevation the models show a greater rate of warming than the observation throughout entire altitudinal stretch of study region. During winter, the simulated rate of warming gets even higher at high altitudes. Moreover, a seasonal response of model performance and its spatial variability to elevation is found. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109345
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, 110067, India
Recommended Citation:
Nengker T.,Choudhary A.,Dimri A.P.. Assessment of the performance of CORDEX-SA experiments in simulating seasonal mean temperature over the Himalayan region for the present climate: Part I[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-07-08)