DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3752-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020715943
论文题名: Understanding the geographic distribution of tropical cyclone formation for applications in climate models
作者: Tory K.J. ; Ye H. ; Dare R.A.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-07-08 起始页码: 2489
结束页码: 2512
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Climate modelling
; Tropical cyclone
; Tropical cyclone climatology
; Tropical cyclone formation
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate modeling
; climatology
; geographical distribution
; tropical cyclone
; vorticity
; weather forecasting
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Atlantic Ocean (South)
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (South)
英文摘要: Projections of Tropical cyclone (TC) formation under future climate scenarios are dependent on climate model simulations. However, many models produce unrealistic geographical distributions of TC formation, especially in the north and south Atlantic and eastern south Pacific TC basins. In order to improve confidence in projections it is important to understand the reasons behind these model errors. However, considerable effort is required to analyse the many models used in projection studies. To address this problem, a novel diagnostic is developed that provides compelling insight into why TCs form where they do, using a few summary diagrams. The diagnostic is developed after identifying a relationship between seasonal climatologies of atmospheric variables in 34 years of ECMWF reanalysis data, and TC detection distributions in the same data. Geographic boundaries of TC formation are constructed from four threshold quantities. TCs form where Emanuel’s Maximum Potential Intensity, VP I, exceeds 40ms-1, 700 hPa relative humidity, RH700, exceeds 40%, and the magnitude of the difference in vector winds between 850 and 200 hPa, Vs h, is less than 20ms-1. The equatorial boundary is best defined by a composite quantity containing the ratio of absolute vorticity (η) to the meridional gradient of absolute vorticity (β∗), rather than η alone. β∗ is also identified as a potentially important ingredient for TC genesis indices. A comparison of detected Tropical Depression (TD) and Tropical Storm (TS) climatologies revealed TDs more readily intensify further to TS where VP I is elevated and Vs h is relatively weak. The distributions of each threshold quantity identify the factors that favour and suppress TC formation throughout the tropics in the real world. This information can be used to understand why TC formation is poorly represented in some climate models, and shows potential for understanding anomalous TC formation behaviour in the real world. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109361
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Research and Development Branch, Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, VIC 3001, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Tory K.J.,Ye H.,Dare R.A.. Understanding the geographic distribution of tropical cyclone formation for applications in climate models[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-07-08)