DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3789-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85023775981
论文题名: Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate
作者: Choudhary A. ; Dimri A.P.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-07-08 起始页码: 3009
结束页码: 3030
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climatology
; CORDEX-SA
; Himalayan region
; Monsoonal
; Precipitation
; Precipitation change
; Projections
; RCPs
; Trend
; Uncertainty
英文摘要: Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020–2049) and far future (2070–2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970–2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970–2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations showing a greater trend in far-future under RCP8.5 when compared with higher elevations. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109362
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, 110067, India
Recommended Citation:
Choudhary A.,Dimri A.P.. Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-07-08)